Tony Butt's 3 Day Outlook for Europe / UK

Tony has a PhD in Physical Oceanography and worked part time with the Coastal Processes Research Group at the University of Plymouth for about ten years. He has now teamed up with Lunasurf to bring you an accurate swell forecast for Europe and the United Kingdom.

About Tony Butt

Surf report for Thursday 17 May 2012

Best bet

Southwest France

General synopsis at 12:00 UTC

Not much action on today’s chart, with quite small pressure gradients over the entire North Atlantic and no significant storms. There is a flabby area of high pressure northwest of the Azores, and an area of relatively low pressure centred over the Bay of Biscay, with a moderate northerly flow through the middle between Iceland and the Azores. There is a developing low pressure over Newfoundland whose winds are mostly over land at the moment. Local pressure gradients are slack everywhere.

Forecast

Over the next few days that high drifts slowly south, expected just southwest of the Azores by Sunday. At the same time the low over the Bay of Biscay intensifies slightly, strengthening a northerly flow on its western flank. The low over Newfoundland shifts out into the open North Atlantic on Saturday and stalls just south of Greenland. A westerly fetch develops on its southern flank which could generate some swell for west-facing coasts. Local pressure gradients are moderate.

South Coast of England

Friday:

Small, poor-quality windseas picking up later as winds increase from light southerlies to fresh or strong south-westerlies; wave heights up to about three feet

Saturday:

Just about surfable in the morning in the west of the area, but pretty flat everywhere by the afternoon, with light south-easterly winds

Sunday:

Flat almost everywhere, with moderate northerly winds

Northern France and Channel Islands

Friday:

Small, poor-quality windseas on west-facing coast, very small or flat on north coasts, with fresh to strong south-westerly winds

Saturday:

Winds die down to light and variable and some small swell reaches north-facing spots in the west; wave heights up to two or three feet

Sunday:

Very small or flat almost everywhere, with moderate northerly winds

East coast of England and Scotland

Friday:

A long-period north swell becomes mixed with short-period easterly windseas driven by fresh east-northeast winds; wave heights up to about four feet

Saturday:

Wave heights increase, perhaps up to five or six feet at exposed spots, but swell quality remains poor, with moderate to fresh north-northeast winds

Sunday:

Winds increase to fresh or strong northerlies and the north swell continues, with wave heights around four or five feet and lumpy

Southwest Norway

Friday:

Decreasing north swell with poor-quality conditions; wave heights around three feet at northwest exposures, smaller elsewhere, with moderate north-northwest winds

Saturday:

Winds decrease to light northerlies and northwest exposures might see some small rideable surf, but pretty flat at south or southwest-facing spots

Sunday:

Very small or flat almost everywhere, with light to moderate northerly winds

North Coast of Scotland

Friday:

A slowly decreasing north swell with wave heights up to about four feet and moderate northeast winds

Saturday:

The north swell continues to decrease gradually, down to about three feet at exposed spots by afternoon, with moderate northeast winds

Sunday:

Becoming very small or flat in many places, but some west swell starts to hit exposed spots later; moderate northeast winds

Western Scotland and northwest Ireland

Friday:

Smallish north swell mixed with some small decreasing west swell; wave heights around three or four feet at exposed spots with moderate northeast winds

Saturday:

Wave heights drop and the surf becomes increasingly sloppy, with wave heights up to two or three feet and moderate to fresh northeast winds

Sunday:

Very small or flat in many places, but a small west swell beginning to reach northern areas later; light easterly winds

Southwest Ireland

Friday:

A reasonable south swell hitting southerly exposures, with wave heights up to about four feet and moderate to fresh northerly winds

Saturday:

The swell drops very fast, with wave heights below three feet in most places, and light variable winds

Sunday:

Very small or flat almost everywhere apart from perhaps the most exposed spots in the far west, with light easterly winds

Southwest Wales

Friday:

Very small or flat in most places, with moderate to fresh easterly winds

Saturday:

Flat almost everywhere apart from perhaps the most exposed beaches in the far west, with light southeast winds

Sunday:

Remaining flat practically everywhere, with moderate northeast winds

North Devon and Cornwall

Friday:

Very small and poor quality surf with wave heights below three feet everywhere and light becoming moderate westerly winds

Saturday:

Winds improve with light south-easterlies, and you might find some rideable surf in the far west, up to two or three feet if you’re lucky

Sunday:

The surf goes flat almost everywhere, and winds are light becoming moderate northerlies

Northwest France

Friday:

Poor-quality swell with wave heights around three or four feet and moderate to fresh westerly winds

Saturday:

Winds turn to light southerlies and the swell quality improves, although wave heights drop to three feet or so at exposed spots

Sunday:

Wave heights continue to drop, become flat in many places later, with light northerly winds

Southwest France

Friday:

Smallish, lumpy surf with wave heights around three or four feet and light northerly winds

Saturday:

Conditions deteriorate as winds increase to moderate north-westerlies; wave heights three feet or below and choppy

Sunday:

Conditions improve slightly in the morning, but winds pick up to moderate westerlies by the afternoon; wave heights up to about three feet

North coast of Spain – east of Gijón

Friday:

Smallish, lumpy surf with wave heights around three maybe four feet and light to moderate northerly winds

Saturday:

Wave heights drop to three feet or below in most places, with lumpy conditions continuing; winds are light to moderate northerlies

Sunday:

The swell becomes a little more lined up and picks up slightly; winds are light in the morning but pick up to moderate north-westerlies by the afternoon

North coast of Spain – west of Gijón

Friday:

Small, lumpy west swell with wave heights around three feet at exposed spots and very light northerly winds

Saturday:

Wave heights drop initially but then a more solid swell arrives from the west-northwest; wave heights up to three or four feet and light westerly winds

Sunday:

The swell continues with some good beachbreak surf in the morning, but spoilt by moderate north-westerly winds in the afternoon

West coast of Galicia

Friday:

Short-period, decreasing northwest swell, with wave heights up to about three feet and light to moderate westerly winds

Saturday:

Wave heights build from the northwest as a more solid swell arrives; up to six feet by the afternoon but spoilt by moderate to fresh westerly winds

Sunday:

The swell continues, but wind conditions are poor, with moderate to fresh north-westerlies

Portugal

Friday:

Small, good-quality north swell with wave heights up to three or four feet at exposed spots, but with moderate northwest winds

Saturday:

The swell disappears quite quickly and is replaced by short-period windseas generated by moderate to fresh northwest winds

Sunday:

A much more solid swell arrives from the north-northwest, pushing wave heights up to six feet or so, but accompanied by fresh northwest winds 

Long-term prospects:

The upper airstream remains quite weak and broken up, but despite this a cut-off low is forecast to form sometime after the weekend, which could turn into quite a powerful system. If it does, it might produce some good west swell for mid-areas and west-facing coasts.